What's next for Zim?

Harare - Zimbabwe's opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai beat President Robert Mugabe in the presidential election but faces a run-off vote after failing to win an outright majority, the electoral body said on Friday.

When is the run-off?

The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) will set the date of the run-off. By law, a second round should be held within 21 days of the result. But the ZEC has the power to extend it. Political observers say it is likely to extend the period to within about 40 days.

What options does Tsvangirai have?

Tsvangirai has raised doubts about whether he would take part in a run-off and has been out of the country since shortly after the vote, trying to keep up international pressure on Mugabe.



But if he refuses to take part, Mugabe would keep his hold on power. Tsvangirai has suggested he could only contest a second round if it was monitored by United Nations-led foreign observers. The main international observer group during the first round was from Zimbabwe's neighbours.

Tsvangirai has said the MDC would not resort to violence in its bid to gain power. His calls to mobilise Zimbabweans for mass protests have failed.

Who would win a run-off?

On the face of it, Tsvangirai would appear strongly placed to win a fair election. But the opposition, human rights groups and Western countries accuse Mugabe of launching a campaign of violence and intimidation to try to swing victory in a second round.

What if Mugabe stays in power?

Zimbabwe's economic crisis is likely to deepen and analysts say there will be few prospects of serious political change.

Western sanctions have failed to weaken Mugabe and he is likely to tighten his grip on power.

Mugabe's loss of parliament would make governing more difficult for a minority Zanu-PF cabinet because the passage of legislation would depend on cooperation from the opposition.

But the opposition will not have the two thirds majority needed to impeach the president or change the constitution.

Mugabe's Zanu-PF party would through presidential appointees have control of the Senate, the upper house of parliament, which can block legislation from the lower House.

What if Tsvangirai wins?

Analysts say the end of Mugabe's rule would probably bring badly needed international aid. The US ambassador to Zimbabwe has said Zimbabweans should expect an economic package worth billions of dollars if a new democratic government that embraces free markets is formed.

An estimated 3 million Zimbabweans have fled the country. Some could return home and bring back much needed skills.

Tsvangirai has spoken in broad terms about creating conditions for foreign investment of $10 billion. He has not spelled out how he would ease Zimbabwe's economic crisis marked by severe shortages of basic goods and the world's highest inflation rate of 165 000 percent.

Tsvangirai would likely reverse a nationalisation law implemented by Mugabe that analysts have said could deepen the economic crisis.

What if there is a prolonged political deadlock?

Zimbabwe could slip at least briefly into the kind of violence that hit Kenya after a disputed December election, although Mugabe's security forces are likely to quickly end unrest.

Talk has been floated of a possible national unity government as a way out of the crisis, but both sides would insist on leading such an administration.

Source Url: http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?art_id=nw20080502181010316C906474

Posted By: Jan
AfricanCrisis Webmaster
Author of: Government by Deception