NEW! Now you can add your own Predictions

The purpose of The Prediction Experiment is in order to analyse and record, before, during and after thoughts and analyses of events we think might happen. The aim is to be quite specific in terms of predictions and time frames.

With 20/20 hindsight, one often forgets your earlier errors and assumptions. Here we will record them and analyse them in order to later see how accurate or inaccurate we were and what wrong assumptions we made. The aim is to improve our future accuracy.

Many of the scenarios in The Prediction Experiment will be set up by me. However, since each scenario has so many variations, people are welcome to add new predictions that I might have missed. People can also add predictions that deal with topics which I have not even thought of.

I made some changes which will allow you to add your own predictions regarding anything.

A Prediction you add will not appear immediately. Once I've checked it, it will be authorised and then you will see it.

To add a new prediction, click on "Add a Prediction" on the "Predictions Analysis" menu. Then fill in all the details required as best you can. I will check it, and when I've gone through it, it will be added to either an existing Scenario, or a new Scenario will be created for it.

Although your name will not appear next to it at the moment, I'll add that later.

This is the beginning of a "Predictions Register". We will register and monitor all predictions.

Have fun, do some thinking and put up a prediction about something that you think will happen, and we'll monitor it.

NOTE: Please make the most of the text where you describe the prediction. Where possible make a note of WHY you believe this event will happen. Motivate your current thinking. We need to come back in the future to see what we motivated and why. Then we can see what we overlooked, or did right.

Do the best you can, and let's see how it goes.

Here is how we will start using the Prediction Experiment's statistics: How The Prediction Experiment's Statistics will be used...
Posted By: Jan
AfricanCrisis Webmaster
Author of: Government by Deception